Impacts of rainfall variability in Gharb Plain: Morocco

Driss El Karfa, Jamal Al Karkouri, Mouhcine Batchi, Hommane Boudine

Abstract


The Mediterranean climate is characterized by irregular rainfall, leading to both severe droughts and occasional flooding. This research aims to examine the changes occurring in the rainfall regime of the Gharb plain over thirty-three years, with specific attention given to three sites: El Menasra, Bel Ksiri, and Sidi Slimane. A range of methods were employed to understand the dimensions and impacts of rainfall in the study area. These methods include trend detection, testing for breaks, analysis of reduced annual anomalies, utilization of the Hyrfan Plus software, calculation of the Martone aridity index, assessment of the standardized rainfall index, and mapping flood zones. The findings of this study revealed that the Gharb Plain experienced periods of rainfall deficits, resulting in drought conditions during years with below-average rainfall. Conversely, years with above-average rainfall exhibited severe flooding, indicating the occurrence of two extreme phenomena that necessitate effective hydraulic management strategies. The main results showed that the rainfall trend is regressing, as the Nicholson, Martone, Emberger, and standardized precipitation indexes justify this regression. In addition, the plain has received an immense quantity of water from the Rif and Atlas Mountains, with the result that the study area has from time to time experienced severe flooding, as shown by the return periods detected, The Gharb plain has therefore experienced a rainfall deficit (drought) in years with below-average rainfall, while years with above-average rainfall have seen severe flooding, putting the country under two extreme phenomena requiring hydraulic management.

Key words: Gharb Plaine, the trend of the rainfall series, break in the rainfall series, standardized rain index, flooding

? 2023?Serbian Geographical Society, Belgrade, Serbia.

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the?Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs?3.0 Serbia.


Full Text:

PDF

References


Ardoin-Bardin, S. (2004). Variabilite Hydro-climatique Et Impacts Sur Les Ressources En Eau De Grands Bassins Hydrographiques En Zone Soudano-sahelienne [These De Doctorat de L?universite Montpellier, France].

Bouaicha, A., Karouk, M. S., Chair, M. (2018). Precipitations Extremes Et Inondations A La Ville De Taza. Cas Des Inondations Du 29-30 Novembre 2010. Acte Du Collo-que, International Sur Les Risques Naturels Et L?amenagement Du Territoire. Pub-lication De L?universite Mohamed ler.

Boyer, J. F. (1998). Khronostat-statistical Time-series Analyses Software. Mont-Pellier. Hydrosciences, Ird-maison Des Sciences De L?eau.

Combe, M. (1975). Le bassin Gharb-Maamora et les petits bassins septentrionaux des oueds Drad?re et Souieire. Ressources en eau du Maroc, Tome 2, plaines et bassin du Maroc Atlantique. Notes et Mem. Serv. G?ol. Maroc, 231, 93?145.

Damnati, B. (2006). Les Variations Climatiques Passes, Actuelles Et Futures: Un Aper?u Global Et Regional (Afrique Et Maroc). Imprimerie Spartel Tanger.

Driouech, F. (2010). Distribution Des Precipitations Hivernales Sur Le Maroc Dans Le Cadre D?un Changement Climatique: Descente D?echelle Et Incertitudes [These de Doctorat De L?universite De Toulouse].

Emberger, L. (1952). Sur Le Quotient Pluviometrique. Sciences, 234, 2508-2511.

Fejjal, A. (1982). Le Binome Sidi Kacem ? Sidi Slimane: Fonction Et Place Dans Le Reseaux Du Rharb [These De Doctorat De 3eme Cycle Universite Fran?ois Rabe-lais de Tours].

GIEC (2014). Changements Climatiques 2014: Rapport de synth?se. GIEC.

IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Combridge University Press.

Karrouk, M. S., (2006). Climate Change and Its Impacts in Morocco. In: A. Mellouki & A. R. Ravishankara (Eds.), Regional Climate Variability And Its Impacts In The Mediterranean Area (pp. 253-267).

Karrouk, M. S., (2017). L?imapct Du ? Nouveau Climat ? Rechauffe Sur Les Extremes Pluviometriques au Maghreb. XXX?me Colloque De L?association De Climatologue (pp. 457-462).

Karrouk, M. S. (2020). Les Inondations Des 2009-2010 Au Maroc: L?exceptionnalite De L?evenement Et Difficultes De Gestion Dans La Region Du Gharb. XXXIII?me Col-loque de l?Association Internationale de Climatologie (pp. 391-396).

Konan, K. S., Kouassi, K. L., Konan, K. F., Kouame, K. I., Aka, K., & Gnakri D. (2013). Evolution Des Charges Solides Et Caracterisations Hydrochimique Des Eaux Du Lac Du Barrages Hydroelictrique D?ayame 1 (Cote D?ivoire). Bulletin De L?institut Scientifique, Rabat, 35, 17-25.

Le Coz, J. (1964). Le Rhorb, Fellahs et Colons. Etude de g?ographie r?gionale. Revue de G?ographie Alpine, 53(4), 697-698.

Maurer, G. (1996). L'homme et les montagnes atlasiques au Maghreb. Annales de g?ographie, 587, 47-72.

McKee, T. B, Doesken, N. & Kleist, J. (1993). The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration Time Scales. Proceeding of The Eighth Conference On Applied Climatology (pp. 179-184).

Min, S-K., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F., & Hegerl, G. C. (2011). Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature, 470. https://doi.org/ 10.1038/nature09763

Mokssit, A. (2016). Presentation Generale des Phenomenes Climatiques Extremes. Cas Du Maroc. Actes De La Session Pleniere Solenelle. Academie Hassan II Des Sciences Et Techniques.

Nicholson, S. E. (1979). Revised Rainfall Series for The West African Subtropics. Month-ly Water Review, 107(5), 620-623.

Ouarda, T.B.M.J., Charron, C., Niranjan Kumar, K., Marpu, P. R., Ghedira, H., Molini, A., & Khayal, I. (2014). Evolution of The Rainfall Regime in The United Arab Emirates. Journal of Hydrology, 514, 258?270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.032

Pedlaborde, P. (1982). Introduction A L?etude Scientifique Du Climat. Edition Paris.

Pettit, A. N. (1979). A Non-Parmetric Approech to Do Change-Point Problem. Applied Statistics, 28(2), 126-135.

Phumkokrux, N. (2023). Trend Analysis and Prediction of Temperature Change In Continental, Thailand. Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society, 103(1), 65-86. https://doi.org/10.2298/gsgd2301065p

Rem?nieras, G. (1976). Hydrologie De L?ingenieur (2st ed). Eyrolles, Paris.

Valjarevi?, A., Milanovi?, M., Gultepe, I., Filipovi?, D., & Luki?, T. (2022) Updated Tre-wartha Climate Classification with Four Climate Change Scenarios. The Geographical Journal, 188, 506?517. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12458

Westra, S., Alexander, L. V., & Zwiers, F. W. (2013). Global Increasing Trends In Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation. Journal of Climate, 26(11), 3904?3918. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.